Fresh off our last drop, we wanted to share some thoughts and observations about the NBA Top Shot season to date. We’ll dive into some questions we’ve seen, shed light on some decisions we’ve made, and provide broader insight into our approach and priorities over the coming months.
What’s the rationale behind Parallels?
The parallels concept came from looking at a few things: we wanted to create more chase collectibles within sets without making base Moments diluted, we wanted to give collectors who love specific players or teams more ways to build around those collections and flex up, even if they’re collecting Common tier Moments. And, of course, we were looking at what's worked in physical cards for decades and for competitors in more recent times. The application across so many subsets was about testing different price points and collection types to see what resonates.
Just last week, we released our first ever Top Shot This Moment with parallels, and we can see the market responding to scarcity in a favorable way:
- Tyrese Maxey’s Standard Edition (/1245): $3
- Tyrese Maxey’s Blockchain Parallel (/99): $9
- Tyrese Maxey’s Hexwave Parallel (/25): $40
- Tyrese Maxey’s Galactic Parallel (/5): $1,495
We see other examples of scarcer parallels being valued more across the board. Take Cooper Flagg’s recently released Origins as another example:
- Cooper Flagg’s Standard Edition (/129): $249
- Cooper Flagg’s Hexwave Parallel (/25): $800
- Cooper Flagg’s Jukebox Parallel (/10): $3,499
And for another rookie without quite the same fanfare as Cooper Flagg, we see the trend continue with the likes of Hugo Gonzalez:
- Hugo Gonzalez’s Standard Edition (/129): $16
- Hugo Gonzalez’s Hexwave Parallel (/25): $59
- Hugo Gonzalez’s Jukebox Parallel (/10): $500
One area we will continue to improve for parallels is the marketplace experience.
Two other areas where we’ve seen collector feedback around parallels:
- Mint count and tier intuitiveness.
A common question we’ve heard is: “Why can a Rare-tier Moment have a /10 or /25 mint count when those numbers have historically been associated with higher tiers?”
It’s a totally fair question, and the answer comes down to how we’ve chosen to structure parallels. On some platforms, each parallel is assigned its own tier. On Top Shot, every parallel inherits the tier of the set it lives in. That means a Rare set can contain a /129 base version and a /25 and /10 parallel version. This may feel unintuitive at first, but it actually resembles how parallels have worked in physical cards for decades: a Gold /10 base card is still part of the base card family, not a new tier. The tier speaks to the type of collectible, while the parallel and mint count speak to its scarcity and desirability within that set. Parallels let us deliver those ultra-scarce, grail-level hits without blowing up the core tier structure or diluting Legendary and Ultimate sets. They’re meant to give collectors more ways to flex within the players and teams they love and provide more excitement when ripping packs while still keeping set identity clean and consistent. - Special serials.
We’ve also heard questions about whether Parallels dilute the value of special serials. It’s fair feedback. Introducing multiple parallels means a player can now have multiple chances at a #1, jersey match, or perfect mint. That’s something we should have addressed more directly upfront.
The tradeoff here is intentional. More special-serial opportunities create more meaningful hits when opening packs, especially for rookies and star players. And because special serials now play a role in trade-in auctions and burn pathways, having more of them actually strengthens the overall economy by driving more high-quality supply into burn mechanics.
Just like in physical cards, each special serial lives within the context of its specific parallel — a #1 in a /99 parallel doesn’t compete with a #1 in the /10 version. They’re different lanes with different collector appeal. And special serials continue to be valued at a premium in comparison to the non special serials in the parallel. Take Kon Knueppel for example:
- Kon Knueppel’s Hardcourt Parallel: Average Sale Price = $1,018
- Kon Knueppel’s Hardcourt Serial #1 = $2,222
- Kon Knueppel’s Standard Rookie Debut Average Sale Price = $54
- Kon Knueppel’s Standard Rookie Debut Serial #1 = $1,500
Overall, expanding special serials gives collectors more to chase, improves pack value, and fuels a healthier supply-and-burn loop. That said, the feedback is valid, and we’ll continue tuning the system so it remains exciting, intuitive, and aligned with long-term collector value.
Can you share insights around the December 3 drop?
We've already identified the technical issues that occurred and have made updates and changes where needed. While nothing changed in our code from the November drop to the December drop, a piece of code that had been in the product through the summer led to unexpected and unnecessary action in the backend, related to buyback offers. Essentially, the post-pack opening experience was continuously searching for a buyback offer, and when one wasn’t found, it’d reexamine the database, slowing down the site. Once the issue was identified, the site recovered instantly.
Site stability issues compounded a more fundamental problem: the pack's value proposition didn't resonate with collectors.
We priced the packs by valuing the grails we were inserting into the packs against their closest marketplace comparisons. With a plethora of 1/1s, /5s and /10s, we had no shortage of great hits in the packs.
As a result, we saw that the Expected Value distribution weighted too heavily toward the highest end outcomes. While the EV of the packs is in line with their pricing, the median outcome is also important.
Some immediate next steps will include bringing back Own The Moment’s pack simulator as an internal tool for our team to be able to rip boxes, cases, and packs in a staged environment to confirm that the ripping experience delivers the expected joy we’re designing for.
In the meantime, we have made some boxes and cases available for breaks starting this week. If these breaks are popular, we will expand the offerings in the coming weeks. Beyond the boxes and cases being reserved for breaks, they will also remain available for sale directly on the site and app, while supplies last.
Additional Thoughts
While this season has brought countless improvements, we need to continue to do a better job tying tactical changes back to the strategic goals for the season. We've gotten better at explaining what we're doing (the roadmap posts, the drop details), but we haven't consistently explained why in a way that connects to larger goals and shows you there's a plan being executed against.
We're going to start adding a “Why This Matters" section to major product announcements. Not just what we're doing, but how it serves the larger goals and what's in it for collectors.
We’re as excited as ever about NBA Top Shot and believe the adjustments we’ve made this season and will continue to help make 2026 the very best year on NBA Top Shot to date. We appreciate all of the support, patience, and feedback and look forward to all that’s to come this season!
