As a follow up to our Elite Pack Distribution Audit, we’d like to provide additional clarity and next steps.
Jalen Green’s Holo Icon
We will be minting Jalen Green’s Holo Icon Moment to the full 99 count and placing the Moments into packs that are releasing in an upcoming drop.
That’s right: one of the NBA’s most exciting rookies will now have his first Legendary Moment available in packs selling for $49 and $19 very soon.
The Holo Icon Challenge originally planned to correspond with the Legendary Moments released with this drop will no longer happen.
Unlike the Game Recognize Game and MGLE sets, Holo Icon had most of its Moments distributed last week in Elite Packs. Approximately three quarters (74.949%) of Holo Icon Moments were packed in Elite Packs with the other one quarter (25.050%) packed in the Standard Packs.
For that reason, there will not be an associated Challenge with the Jalen Green Holo Icon or the other Holo Icon Moments from last week's drop.
We will still have Challenges for Game Recognize Game and MGLE this week.
Holo Icon Distribution Stats
As of 2:15pm PST on Friday, February 4 there were 324 total Holo Icon Moments from this drop opened by collectors. This is out of an expected 328 Holo Icon Moments distributed in total assuming all packs were opened (which we know they were not). This means that over 98% of the expected Holo Icon Moments from the Elite drop were opened. By expected, we mean the center of the bell curve in a random distribution. These were distributed as follows:
1. Moments Owned per collector is a measure of Holo Icon Series 3 Moments debuting in the KD Certified Elite Pack that were pulled from Elite packs in the drop and owned by collectors at 2:15pm PST on Friday, February 4.
2. Collectors is the total quantity of individuals holding the exact number of Moments in Column 1.
3. % Total Collectors Eligible is the percentage of collectors who could buy the quantity of packs represented in Column 1 as their maximum per transaction limit. These limits were determined by Collector Score + Drop Bonus Thresholds of 10k+ (1), 25k+ (2), 50k+ (3), and 100k+ (5). This assumes that every cohort lined up at the same proportionate rate.
4. Differential is the difference between Column 2 and 3. This represents the deviation from expectation under 2 assumptions. Assumption 1 is that everyone bought the most packs they qualified for. Assumption 2 is that if any of your packs contained a Holo Icon then all of them did. This total does not sum due to rounding.
5. Total Holo Icon Moments Owned by Cohort is derived from Column 1 multiplied by Column 2.
6. % of Holo Icon Moments Owned by Cohort is the percentage of Column 5 vs. the total Moments held by collectors (324) reflected in the last row of Column 5.
7. Expected % Moments Owned by Cohort is the expectation of what the % in Column 6 would be following the same 2 assumptions in (4) above. Assumption 1 is that everyone bought the most packs they qualified for. Assumption 2 is that if any of your packs contained a Holo Icon then all of them did.
8. % Total Supply Owned by Cohort is the percentage of the total supply of Metallic Gold LE Moments (5,992) from the KD Certified Elite and KD Certified Standard Packs combined that were pulled from Elite packs in the drop by the cohort in each row. The total does not sum due to rounding.
9. For the sake of clarity all percentages in the table were rounded to the nearest whole number.
The key takeaways from the above table are that no cohort of specific individuals was statistically advantaged by the distribution. Additionally, only about 16% of the total supply of the new Holo Icon Moments ended up in the possession of people who got 3 or more in the drop. The 65% total in the final column represents the percentage of the 495 total Holo Icon Moments in the Elite and Standard Packs that were opened from the drop as of 2:15pm PST on Friday, February 4.
Metallic Gold LE Distribution Stats
As of 2:15pm PST on Friday, February 4 there were 1,727 total MGLE Moments from this drop opened by collectors. This is out of an expected 1,767 MGLE Moments distributed in total assuming all packs were opened (which we know they were not). This means that over 97% of the expected MGLE Moments from the Elite drop were opened. By expected, we mean the center of the bell curve in a random distribution. These were distributed as follows:
1. Moments Owned per Collector is a measure of Metallic Gold LE Series 3 Moments debuting in the KD Certified Elite Pack that were pulled from Elite packs in the drop and owned by collectors at 2:15pm PST on Friday, February 4.
2. Collectors is the total quantity of individuals holding the exact number of Moments in Column 1.
3. % Total Collectors Eligible is the percentage of collectors who could buy the quantity of packs represented in Column 1 as their maximum per transaction limit. These limits were determined by Collector Score + Drop Bonus Thresholds of 10k+ (1), 25k+ (2), 50k+ (3), and 100k+ (5). This assumes that every cohort lined up at the same proportionate rate.
4. Differential is the difference between Column 2 and 3. This represents the deviation from expectation under 2 assumptions. Assumption 1 is that everyone bought the most packs they qualified for. Assumption 2 is that if any of your packs contained a Holo Icon then all of them did. This total does not sum due to rounding.
5. Total Metallic Gold LE Moments Owned by Cohort is derived from Column 1 multiplied by Column 2.
6. % of Metallic Gold LE Moments Owned by Cohort is the percentage of Column 5 vs. the total Moments held by collectors (1,727) reflected in the last row of Column 5. This total does not sum due to rounding.
7. Expected % Moments Owned by Cohort is the expectation of what the % in Column 6 would be following the same 2 assumptions in (4) above. Assumption 1 is that everyone bought the most packs they qualified for. Assumption 2 is that if any of your packs contained a Metallic Gold LE then all of them did.
8. % Total Supply Owned by Cohort is the percentage of the total supply of Metallic Gold LE Moments (5,992) from the KD Certified Elite and KD Certified Standard Packs combined that were pulled from Elite Packs in the drop by the cohort in each row. The total does not sum due to rounding.
9. For the sake of clarity all percentages in the table were rounded to the nearest whole number.
The key takeaways from the above table are that no cohort of specific individuals was statistically advantaged by the distribution. Additionally, only about 8% of the total supply of the new MGLE Moments ended up in the possession of people who got 3 or more in the drop. The 29% total in the final column represents the percentage of the 5,992 total MGLE Moments in the Elite and Standard Packs that were opened from the drop as of 2:15pm PST on Friday, February 4.
Distribution of Elite Packs
Below is a graph that also shows similar data to visualize the distribution of packs per transaction over time during the drop. This shows that Collector Score cohorts were distributed throughout the Queue. Combined with the graph shared in the Elite Pack Distribution Audit, this reaffirms the data in the charts above.
The Game Recognize Game Challenge
We expect the Game Recognize Game Challenge to launch on Tuesday with exact requirements to be announced at the launch. Three-eighths (37.5%) of the Game Recognize Game Moments were packed in Elite Packs, with the other five-eighths (62.5%) being contained in the Standard Packs.
The bulk of the supply is still to come in the Standard Pack drop on Monday, February 7. It’s important for many new fans who land a Standard Pack on Monday to have their first opportunity to pursue a Challenge on Top Shot shortly thereafter.
The Metallic Gold LE Challenge
The MGLE set will have a Challenge requiring some of the Moments from the Elite Packs as requirements. This will also launch on Tuesday and exact requirements will be announced then. No collector will be able to complete the Challenge using only Moments from the drop last Thursday.
Any MGLE Moments from these packs that are not used in this challenge will be used in a future MGLE challenge. One-third of MGLE Moments were packed in Elite Packs. The bulk of the supply is still to come in the Standard Pack drop on Monday, February 7.
In Closing
This new blended pack format will continue throughout the month of February, and we anticipate Elite and Standard Packs containing new Legendary and Rare Moments to continue to be weekly occurrences throughout the test. Stay tuned for updates about more packs dropping soon.
